The tariff uncertainty trade is back
The tariff uncertainty trade is back
Hamza ShabanTue, February 24, 2026 at 11:00 AM UTC
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As challenging as a new, high-tariff trade regime was to American businesses last year, Wall Street settled on the belief that as long as we roughly knew where the tariff rate would end up, businesses could learn to deal with them.
One-off trade deals and foreign governments agreeing to play ball boosted optimism. At a certain point last year, the story was that the tariffs themselves aren't so bad — it was the utter unpredictability around them that hurt.
People were repeating it as much as a dad on a 90-degree day issuing the reminder that "it's not the heat, it's the humidity," and 2026's big promise wasn't any major change in tariff costs, but rather that the drama was over.
But last week's Supreme Court decision and subsequent Trump make-up tariffs under a different law have dragged us back into 2025's fray. Now all sorts of unresolved questions have invited one of the market's least favorite guests back to the table: uncertainty.
"President Trump's 15% global tariff on almost all imports is through an under-the-radar law known as Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, and this adds a new layer of uncertainty to the tariff story," said Michael Landsberg, chief investment officer at Landsberg Bennett Private Wealth Management, in a note on Monday.
Remember the negotiating timelines and tariff countdowns? We have those again now. Trump's new tariffs can stay in place for 150 days under the law before Congress has to step in.
Mark your calendars.
"The big question for the economy is what happens after this window, and if the tariff policy stays down this path, we may very well be back at the Supreme Court later this year," said Landsberg.
President Donald Trump speaks during a press briefing at the White House, Friday, Feb. 20, 2026, in Washington. Beside the President is Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnik. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci) ()
So we may be doing this all over again. On top of that, the geopolitical ramifications are also laced with a sense of irony.
For countries that already negotiated with Trump to avoid the full weight of the "blanket" tariffs, the new wave of levies will make things worse than before. Meanwhile, countries that clashed with Trump and didn't agree to concessions will see their tariffs lowered, like Chinese importers whose overall rates will drop from about 37% to 30%, according to Global Trade Alert.
In other words, the Supreme Court's decision and Trump's response have left many of the US's friendlier trading partners worse off.
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The current state of the AI trade, and by that I mean a renewed sense of sector-wide doom, isn't helping the mood. Last go-around, some of the tariff uncertainty was canceled out by AI hysteria and excitement. Why fixate on higher import duties when the global economy was on the verge of radical transformation?
Now investors are pulled in the same direction by uncertainty on two fronts: the limbo of new tariffs and the disorienting concern that future AI will obliterate entire sectors while also costing too much money and not making enough of it.
The market selling a story it can tell itself means everything. And the one that used to work (AI transformation!) is rubbing up against a darker, almost apocalyptic version about a major decline of computer-based jobs.
Let's ground ourselves.
Maybe the new tariffs will abide by the prior pattern. Elevated rates, for sure, but not unmanageable.
As Angelo Kourkafas, senior global strategist at Edward Jones, wrote on Monday, "the newly announced 15% tariff rate is unlikely to have a meaningful impact on economic activity." And the growth of stocks will once again rely on strong corporate profit growth.
That's what a lot of investors believed the last time around. And it's true for today, as well.
So long as corporate profits hold.
Hamza Shaban is a reporter for Yahoo Finance covering markets and the economy. Follow Hamza on X @hshaban.
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